10th Annual Summer Institute in Statistics and Modeling in Infectious Diseases (SISMID)

Module 2: Mathematical Models of Infectious Diseases

Session 1: Mon Jul 9 to Wed Jul 11

Module dates/times: Monday, July 9; 8:30 a.m. -5 p.m.; Tuesday, July 10, 8:30 a.m.-5 p.m., and Wednesday, July 11, 8:30 a.m.-Noon

Prerequisites: Students are expected to have a working knowledge of the R computing environment. Programming will be in R. Students new to R should complete a tutorial before the module.

This module covers the principles of dynamic models of infectious diseases. This module will focus on developing and analyzing compartmental models such as the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Topics include deriving the basic reproductive ratio using the next generation method, incorporating different mechanisms of heterogeneity in transmission (for instance, age-structure, behavior or seasonality), formulating exact stochastic birth-death models, carrying out sensitivity analysis and statistical fitting of simple models to data. The module will alternate between lectures and computer labs.

Background Reading: Keeling & Rohani (2008) Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals, Princeton University Press.