Presentation: Subnational Modeling of Child Mortality in Low- and Medium-income Countries
2018-19 Ross L. Prentice Endowed Professor: Jonathan Wakefield, Ph.D., Professor of Statistics and Biostatistics, University of Washington
Abstract: The under-five mortality rate (U5MR) is a key barometer of the health of a nation. Unfortunately, many people living in low- and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration systems. This makes estimation of the U5MR, particularly at the subnational level, difficult. Household sample surveys, with complex designs, and censuses, are therefore used for estimation. In this talk I will describe a range of models for subnational U5MR estimation that I have been developing, with a host of collaborators. Data sparsity in time and space is a key challenge, and it is imperative to combine all data types, while accounting for the different biases and spatial and temporal scales on which each are measured. I will discuss the advantages and disadvantages of discrete and continuous spatial models, in the context of estimation at the scale at which health interventions are made. Other issues that will be touched upon include: design-based versus model-based inference; adjustments for HIV epidemics; the inclusion of so-called indirect (summary birth history) data; reproducibility through software availability; how to deal with incomplete geographical data; and working with the United Nations to produce estimates. The modeling of U5MR in African countries is used to motivate and illustrate the issues raised.
Reception: To follow lecture at Double Helix Cafe, Fred Hutch