9th Summer Institute in Statistics and Modeling in Infectious Diseases

Module 2: Mathematical Models of Infectious Diseases

Week 1, Session 1, Monday 8:30 AM - Wednesday 12:00 PM: Mon Jul 10 to Wed Jul 12

Programming will be carried out in R and students are expected to have a working knowledge of this computing environment.

This module covers the principles of dynamic models of infectious diseases. This module will focus on developing and analyzing compartmental models such as the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Topics include deriving the basic reproductive ratio using the next generation method, incorporating different mechanisms of heterogeneity in transmission (for instance, age-structure, behavior or seasonality), formulating exact stochastic birth-death models, carrying out sensitivity analysis and statistical fitting of simple models to data. The module will alternate between lectures and computer labs.

Background Reading: Keeling & Rohani (2008) Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals, Princeton University Press.