This module covers the principles of dynamic models of infectious diseases. The module will focus on the dynamics of compartmental models such as the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Topics include incorporating different types of heterogeneities in transmission (resulting from age-structure, behaviour or seasonality), exact stochastic birth-death models, sensitivity analysis and fitting of simple models to data. The module will alternate between lectures and computer labs. Programming will be done in R.
Background Reading: Keeling & Rohani (2008) Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals, Princeton University Press.