Presentation: Analysis of Infectious Disease Incidence and Complex Survey Data in Space and Time
Candidate: Tracy Qi Dong, Graduate Student, UW Biostatistics
Committee Members: Jon Wakefield (Chair), Betz Halloran, Lurdes Inoue, Laina Mercer, Kenneth Sherr (GSR)
Abstract: The overarching goal of my dissertation research is to develop statistical methods for analyzing infectious disease incidence and complex survey data to provide reliable information for assessing and planning public health interventions, especially immunization programs in low- and middle-income countries. The first two projects focus on measles, a significant source of global disease burden and child mortality. Measles vaccination through routine immunization (RI) programs in high-burden settings remains a challenge due to poor health care infrastructure and access. Supplementary immunization activities (SIA) are therefore implemented to prevent measles outbreaks by reducing the size of susceptible population. We first develop a space-time smoothing model for estimating sub-national RI coverage of the first dose of measles-containing-vaccines (MCV1) using complex survey data, then propose a model under the time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) framework to estimate SIA efficacy and forecast future incidence trends using reported measles incidence data. The third project focuses on the modeling and presentation of demographic and health indicators measured via complex surveys in general. I will present the first two projects in detail and give an overview of the third project in this exam.